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Cracker Barrel (CBRL) Q1 Earnings Miss Estimates, Stock Down

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Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (CBRL - Free Report) delivered mixed first-quarter fiscal 2023 (ended Oct 28, 2022) results, with earnings missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate and revenues beating the same. The top line rose year over year, while the bottom line declined from the prior-year quarter's figure.

Following the results, the company’s shares dropped 12.9% during trading hours on Dec 2. Negative investor sentiments were witnessed as CBRL provided a lower-than-expected fiscal 2023 revenue guidance. The management cited a challenging macro environment, including continued inflation and low consumer confidence.

Earnings & Revenues

In first-quarter fiscal 2023, the company reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 99 cents missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.27. In the prior-year quarter, the company reported adjusted EPS of $1.52.

 

Quarterly revenues of $839.5 million beat the consensus mark of $838 million. Also, the top line increased 7% year over year. The company benefited from improved visitation, retail sales growth and solid off-premise business.

Comps Details

Comparable store restaurant sales rose 7.1% in the reported quarter compared with the same period in fiscal 2022. The upside was primarily backed by a 7.8% average menu price increase. Comparable store retail sales increased 4.3% year over year.

Operating Highlights

During the fiscal first quarter, the cost of goods sold (excluding depreciation and rent) came in at $281.5 million compared with $242.8 million reported in the prior-year quarter. As a percentage of total revenues, the cost of goods sold (exclusive of depreciation and rent) increased 260 basis points (bps) year over year to 33.5%. General and administrative expenses during the quarter came in at $45.9 million compared with $40.9 million reported in the prior-year quarter.

Adjusted operating income in the fiscal first quarter totaled $30 million compared with $46.1 million reported in the prior-year quarter. The adjusted operating margin was 3.6% compared with 5.9% in the prior-year quarter. The downside was mainly driven by commodity, wage and other expense inflation and elevated maintenance expense.

Balance Sheet

As of Oct 28, 2022, cash and cash equivalents were $38.7 million compared with $125.9 million as of Oct 29, 2021.

Inventory at the end of first-quarter fiscal 2023 amounted to $231 million compared with $159.6 million at the end of first-quarter fiscal 2022.

Long-term debt amounted to $483.7 million at the end of the quarter compared with $377 million at the end of the prior-year quarter.

The company declared a cash dividend of $1.30 per share. The dividend will be paid out on Jan 31, 2023, to shareholders on record as of Jan 13, 2022.

Fiscal 2023 Outlook

For fiscal 2023, the company expects revenues to grow in the range of 6-8% year over year compared with the previous anticipation of the 7-8% range. During the year, the company anticipates contributions worth $20-$25 million from cost savings and business model improvements. Adjusted operating income margin during the year is anticipated to be in the high 4% range. In the previous quarter, the company anticipated operating income growth in the range of 8-10%.

In fiscal 2023, the company anticipates commodity inflation to be 8-9% (with sequential moderation) and wage inflation of 5-6%. Meanwhile, the effective tax rate for fiscal 2023 is anticipated at approximately 10-15%.

Coming to store openings, the company expects to open three to four new Cracker Barrel locations and 15-20 new Maple Street Biscuit locations in fiscal 2023. Capital expenditures during the year are anticipated at approximately $125 million.

Zacks Rank & Other Key Picks

Cracker Barrel currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Some other top-ranked stocks in the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector are Wingstop Inc. (WING - Free Report) , Chuy's Holdings, Inc. (CHUY - Free Report) and Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG - Free Report) .

Wingstop sports a Zacks Rank #1. WING has a long-term earnings growth rate of 11%. Shares of WING have increased 0.8% in the past year.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Wingstop’s 2023 sales and EPS suggests growth of 18.1% and 16.4%, respectively, from the comparable year-ago period’s levels.

Chuy’s Holdings currently carries a Zacks Rank #2. CHUY has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 18.6%, on average. Shares of CHUY have increased 8% in the past year.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Chuy’s Holdings 2023 sales and EPS suggests growth of 8.6% and 11.7%, respectively, from the corresponding year-ago period’s levels.

Chipotle currently carries a Zacks Rank #2. CMG has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 4.1%, on average. The stock has declined 1.1% in the past year.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Chipotle’s 2022 sales and EPS suggests growth of 15.1% and 31%, respectively, from the corresponding year-ago period’s levels.

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